The trend thus followed by oil price even with more moderate ways. Oil price is back to punch through US$ 70 a barrel, the same price level as in the mid 2006 and 2007. Stocks and oil price movement seems like sending message that the worst of recent world economic crisis has been passed, the capital market has already leave the most bottom of the curve and welcoming the recovery.

stock market investors finally relieved as all Major world stock market indices start to hike up, up and up for the last four months

Commodity price has showed its teeth earlier than stock market. For the last eight months, copper price has stepped up quiet abruptly. Until June 2009 copper price has gained 63 pct hike than the early year. Copper led the commodity market hike followed by oil which gain 60 pct from January. Tin price also has rose significantly since March for US$ 11,000 a ton and only in four months it ended in US$ 15,000. Investors who hold commercial paper related with commodities among the happiest since its price rose along with its backed asset.

Consumption from China is the sole suspect of commodity price hike. Copper and tin price indicating the still strong demand from electronic, housing, and auto industries. China’s GDP growth until second quarter 2009 still 7.9 pct strong, even rose 1.8 pct form previous quarter. China’s economy growth surpassed all prediction and forecast by respected body such IMF and World Bank who previously forecast the growth under 7 pct.

The bullish trend actually started after first quarter of 2009 financial reports of American companies showed more blue sign than red, even if it almost highly believed that the good performance was helped by government stimulus. In the Q1 2009, Ford Motor gain net income US$ 2.3 billion. Bank of America who received US$ 45 billion bail out claimed net profit US$ 3.22 billion until Q2 2009 and they put aside US$ 700 million installment for US government.

Even company like Citigroup which during crisis always book loss and still predicted will endure the same fate surprisingly gain US$ 3 billion in profit, although they put aside loss from joint venture with Morgan Stanley. While telecommunication company AT&T still gain US$ 3.77 billion of profit a bit less than previous year but once again it still beat the prediction.

The most anticipated news by market is the good news from the market floor. Goldman Sachs, one of the biggest market player, booked US$ 3.44 billion net profit, rose 65 pct from the same period in previous year. Goldman give its investor net income US$ 4.9 per share, far above what was being predicted by analyst surveyed by Bloomberg who gave the figure to US$ 3.65 per share.

Goldman previously took US$ 10 billion from the government stimulus package as part of US$ 200 billion bail out fund channeled through financial institutions. In recent economic condition, how come Goldman got so much fortune? Apparently, trading in financial market must be their biggest bet since other big player such Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns were forced to leave the playing field last year. Nobody knows whether Goldman use bail out money to invest in the stock market.

Better than expected, the words become magic poison to explain as to why the stock market, oil price and commodities are showing recovery trend with even very bullish curve despite until last year many analyst from reputable institution predicted the world economic downturn will not ended  before 2010. Bullish trend did not weaken whatsoever regardless the current release by government that jobless claim number keep getting higher. In mid July 2009, The Fed predicted that the unemployment rate will likely to surpass 10 pct until end of 2009. American economic growth in Q1 2009 still minus 2.5 pct even though The Fed has revised the economic growth forecast for 2009 to a better position with maximum contraction will not exceed 1.5 pct than last May prediction which put the contraction between minus 1.3 to 2 pct.

”Economic situation was expected has reach its lowest position. The question is, how much growth we can get and how quick is the recovery and no more how worse the situation will be,” said Robert Macintosh, chief economist of Eaton Vance in Boston, as quoted by Reuters.

Thanx to Government Stimulus

America as the center of world economic crisis is not the only one who kindly presents stimulus package to hold economic for not falling further down. China government with huge US$ 2 trillion reserve, biggest in the world and twice the Japan’s, has greater capability to do so. China announced stimulus plan worth US$ 586 billion (Yuan 4 trillion) last year. The biggest part went to infrastructure and public welfare services. China consumption will be the world ‘s last hope to keep world economic wheel keep running.

Rock Jin, chief economist of Beijing based Sinolink Securities, said that 2.5 pct portion of 7.9 pct China economic growth came from investment backed by government stimulus. The rest is from production. ”If the investment can be kept at 2.5 pct of he GPD growth, the 8 pct target of economic growth this year can be achieved without any trouble,” said Jin as quoted by Associated Press.

Build, Build, Build! China construction projects will keep demand for world commodities high. Shanghai Tower, the 632 meter high building will be the tallest in China upon completion in 2014. (Source: CTBUH)

China economic performance has made IMF to revise their prediction of China growth up to 1 pct to 7.5 pct. While The World Bank also change the predicted figure from 6.5 pct to 7.2 pct. And maybe they still undervalue China. But this growth might not connected with the fact that China’s export still weaken and the same fate goes to foreign investment. China seems rely on domestic consumption from its 1 billion citizen to sustain the economic growth.

Stimulus indeed intended to reduce dependence on export by increasing domestic consumption through infrastructure projects. Chinese industrial products once mainly for export were diverted to underdeveloped region that have yet enjoy the recent country fast economic growth. Their consumption boost by providing cheap and easy credit from the bank that have receive stimulus package. This scheme has made China industrial product rose 10.7 pct compared to previous year. Retail sales up 15 pct while capital expenditure of China companies for factory and fixed asset increase 33.5 pct.

More surprising was the growth from property sector which rose 53 pct. Auto sales also rose 17.7 pct up to 6.1 million cars, far from widely predicted of contraction which will reduce auto sales growth to 6.7 pct. China’s stimulus package is predicted will flow faster as consumer price index was 1.7 pct lower than last year.

America government channeled the biggest portion of February 2009 stimulus plan worth US$ 787 billion, exclude the previously given US$ 200 billion for financial institution, to boost consumption such tax levy and various public welfare services such medic. The stimulus main focus indeed on the financial sector and housings, were the epicenter of crisis, and recover public consumption even though the Americans over consumption was the most responsible for subprime mortgage crisis.

China took different path with infrastructure project followed what FD Roosevelt did in combating the Great Depression 1929-1930. Yes, China was not the cause of the crisis and in fact they are not in crisis. Japan after hit hard by 1990s crisis follow the infrastructure prescription but fail to bring back their once mighty economic performance and inherit many splendor bridge and highway road that still not bring advantage for recent economic activities.

Recovery? Not So Soon

The Economist magazine this week wrote, despite economic recovery phenomenon was a welcome prospect but is not all clear. ”For this recovery has fragile foundation.” said Economist. The biggest portion of demand come from government stimulus that is unsustainable. Around the world government stimulus has helped economy for not getting worse. Government stimulus has 75 share on China miraculous strong growth. The fall of public consumption in America was paid by the rise of government budget deficit up to 12 pct of GDP. Government do help the economy for a temporary, but not by budget deficit. Economist predicted China’s reserve will just remaining 6 pct of GDP until 2010 and so will other G-8 economic power such Japan and Germany.

Nouril Roubini, prominent economist of New York University, warned coming threat from Eastern Europe financial crisis which can cause a bigger problem for Western European banking system. If the crisis in the region once called emerging market cannot be contained, it will easily spread westward and can only worsening the recent world economic crisis.

Roubini who gained epithet as ‘doctor doom’ for his financial prophecy of America’s economic armageddon two year earlier, said that the crisis still not reach the bottom yet even America can evade the free fall. ”Maybe still next six month. But US economy recovery will be very shallow, slow, and ugly,” said Roubini to Blommberg radio in early July 2009. ”Even if  next year the recession is over, we will still feel that it is still in recession,” he added.

He remind us that America government budget deficit has reached 12 pct of GDP as the government debt ratio will rise to 80 pct of GDP up to US$ 9 trillion with additional interest expense of US$ 700 million. To make it worse, public consumption will be decline from 71 pct of GDP to 67 pct followed by the hike of household saving rate from 5 pct to 10-11 pct in the next 12 months.

American public consumption has risen from 1980s that only 65-66 pct of GDP to 75 pct of GDP in 2007. Meanwhile, household saving rate has dropped from 10 pct in 1980s to zero in 2007. Liquidity flow driven by low interest rate policy has boosted household debt from 67 pct income to a breathtaking number of 137 pct.

Roubini predicted America will face a paradox of thrift. When public more keen to save their income in a crisis, demand aggregate from consumption will weaken and only push recession deeper. The impact is, public saving value is diminishing.

China government seems success in their effort to maintain public consumption by implementing more loose credit policy. Great numbers of stimulus fund went to banking system which encouraged to disburse it to public quickly. Citizen of countryside offered to buy electronic goods despite the lack of electricity infrastructure. China banking previously face serious problem with non preforming loan. Loose credit policy only will make it worse.

Buy Buy Buy !! Let's go party, buy buy buy!! Kuwait Stock Exchange (source: plan.ru)

But as long as the so called world socialist governments, including US, still has piles of stimulus fund, either from reserve or printing new money (debt), we will likely continue enjoying bullish tren. Party in stock market all over the world still going on, take advantage while government still willing to pay the bill (from the tax payer money)….

They acknowledged the total debt was grew, but they assure it was secure as the debt to GDP (gross domestic product) ratio was significantly smaller than in previous years. In 2004, the first year of SBY administration, the debt to GDP ratio was still 57 pct and in 2008 reduced to 33 pct.
(www.sbypresidenku.com)

National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) officers when asked about why we compare government debt to GDP, they will always tell  that it was a custom around the world. They just followed the so called global standard.

What is GDP? Because google is our best friends, I took it from wikipedia:

a basic measure of an economy’s economic performance, is the market value of all final goods and services made within the borders of a nation in a year. [1] GDP can be defined in three ways, all of which are conceptually identical. First, it is equal to the total expenditures for all final goods and services produced within the country in a stipulated period of time (usually a 365-day year). Second, it is equal to the sum of the value added at every stage of production (the intermediate stages) by all the industries within a country, plus taxes less subsidies on products, in the period. Third, it is equal to the sum of the income generated by production in the country in the period—that is, compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports less subsidies, and gross operating surplus (or profits).

Briefly, GDP describe all economic activities in a country, regardless if there are activities funded by foreign investment which may provide huge contribution to GDP such as mining, oil and gas industries run by foreign multinational company. All economic activitiees were counted and summed. If we put the foreign factor aside, we will have Gross National Product (GNP), a term rarely quoted in seminars or paper on economic issue.

If you run a company, usually debt will be compared to EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, amortisation, and depreciation). I don’t know what in the hell EBITDA was, but it was used to compare profitability between companies in the same sector or industry. On the company financial report, EBITDA put between gross profit and earning (net profit). It can tell you how good a company can pay their debt. The lesser debt/EBITDA, the better a company. Some use term such debt to asset ratio, but I think it solely just to make sure that the bank can get their money back when the company defaulted and must sell their asset to pay the debt back.

Indonesia's govt debt to GDP ratio is claimed has been reduced significantly after 1998 economic crisis. (source: www.sbypresidenku.com)

According to Indonesian Central Statistic Bureau (BPS), Indonesian GDP in 2008 was around Rp 4,990 trillion (US$ 490 bio) or US$ 2,000 per capita. Govt debt was Rp 1,667 trillion consist of foreign debt Rp 732 trillion and govt bond Rp 968 trillion. In 2004, total govt debt still Rp 1,299 trillion. In 2008 RI govt must pay debt installment and the interest up to Rp 107 trillion compared to Rp 62.5 trillion in 2004. Whereas RI annual budget in 2009 nearly reach Rp 1,000 trillion, almost twice 2004 budget for Rp 450 trillion.

So, where we can put the govt debt to GDP ratio?
If you insist me to compare a budget management of a country to a company, you only make me nervous because as far as I know the so called Govt Inc never make any profit. But if you persist, I will put EBITDA under govt revenue from tax levied, dividend from state owned enterprises, and from other levies. That means, it will fall under the annual budget which currently near Rp 1,000 trillion as the govt budget always deficit.

Again, I confused as why our government always compare budget deficit to GDP. In 2009, govt budget is around 2.5 pct of GDP. Looks small isn’it? But that means Rp 130 trillion or 13 pct of Rp 1,000 trillion of 2009 budget. The deficit must fill in with another fresh debt, not with a dead cow!!
What is the connection between budget deficit with GDP? Because we used to compared debt with GDP, so we also compare budget deficit that actually a new debt to GDP. This is how the holy damned economic system works.

But GDP don’t give us any clear picture of the capability of a govt to repay its debt. But as GDP means total wealth of a nation belongs to private sectors, individuals, and govt itself, so it was the wealth ready to be confiscated by govt as necessary to repay the mounting debt. How can govt do that? Yes, they already armed. And most importantly, the wealth we hold valued or maybe wholly represented by a mere paper money signed by the central bank governor. The ruler of the nation decide the value of our wealth. If all the govt structure collapsed, then there no longer any guarantor and guardian to the value of our paper money. Central bank governor’s signature on the rupiah bill wil no longer trusted, respected and valued.

GDP also represent total spending of economy which need adequate money supply to serve the economic activities. So, GDP also represent flow of money. We can see for five years (2004-2008) Indonesia GDP grew about 4-6 pct annualy, but inflation still hike in a mean rate of 9.5 pct. It means, the Indonesian real wealth undergo a minus growth (GDP growth minus inflation). Our wealth is growing but the recent purchase power is lesser than in the previous year, or maybe the economic growth just dominated by the growth of money supply?

Indonesia central bank (BI) release two kind of data for GDP. One is measured by current price and the latter by constant price of year 2000. Compare the two GDP model we can have inflation rate between the real GDP and the nominal GDP refer to the price of 2000.

Please, have a look to this link in Bahasa:

http://www.bi.go.id/web/id/Statistik/Statistik+Ekonomi+dan+Keuangan+Indonesia/Versi+HTML/

From BI website:
With current price, GDP in 2008 about Rp 4,458 trillion and in the first quarter of 2009 about Rp 1,127 trillion.
With constant price of year 2000, GDP in 2008 only Rp 1,848 trillion and GDP on first quarter 2009 about Rp 1,795 trillion. For the whole 2009, we can multiply by four so we have GDP 2009 is Rp 1,795 trillion. Whereas GDP in 2000 with current price about Rp 1,265 trillion.

I will not compare data of current govt debt of Rp 1,667 trillion with real GDP 2009 (with constant price of 2000) which only Rp 1,795 trillion. It will make enormous debt to GDP ratio to more than 89 pct. But that is not fair since our debt value measured by constant price of year 2000 also diminished.

Comparing GDP from 2000 until 2009 by current price, our wealth within 10 years has been multiplied by 3,75 times or grow up to 275 pct. But when compare with constant price of 2000, our real wealth within 10 years only grow 41 pct.

I will make a foolish comparison. Govt debt in 2000 was around US$ 130 bio (Rp 1,050 trillion with exchange rate US$ 1 = Rp 8,000) and in 2009 around Rp 1,667 trillion with current price respectively. So, they grew around 58 pct within 10 years. Govt debt to GDP ratio in 2000 was around 83 pct. They said that in 2009 govt debt to GDP ratio was around 32 pct. But in 10 years we have debt hike rate 58 pct compare to GDP growth rate 41 pct.

Economist who defend SBY-Boediono such Chatib Basri (lecturer in UI and advisor to ministry of finance)  always said such excuse like these: ”Govt debt is grow, but that was normal since our wealth (GDP) also growing.”

Inflation is very much loved by debtor but hated by creditor. Let say you were employee in a state owned company start working in year 2000 with monthly salary around Rp 4 million. You took mortgage Rp 150 million for 15 years with fixed interest rate of 8 pct. You pay installment Rp 1,46 million a month for 15 years (BTN mortgage simulation). After 10 years, now your salary has risen up to Rp 15 million with mortgage installment still Rp 1,46 million and you still have to pay for more five years forward. But with annual inflation rate around 7-19 pct, your mortgage installment value actually diminished but your property price is unchanged compare to the constant price of 2000. If you compare the property price within 10 years you’ll find an extreme growth but that was not real price. But compare to your mortgage installment you are still the lucky one, and your bank is a looser.

Govt always combatting inflation in Indonesia which consider too high. The ideal inflation rate, according to Indonesia finance minister Sri Mulyani expected to be around 3-5 pct just like in the developed countries so it will lead bank interest in low level. Inflation is enemy but also loved for an indication that there were economic growth although there always a pseudo growth due to growth in money supply. Inflation is a tools which enable govt secretly steal our wealth by pumping the money flow.

Talk about inflation, there are so many causes either foreign or domestic factors.  I remember when I bought fried snack (Bahasa: gorengan) last week. I stunned when I give the seller Rp 4,000 and he only gave me six little pieces of gorengan. I notice this situation has lasted for more than a year since early 2008 when CPO price soar high up to US$ 1,200 a ton. It drove the palm oil price gone high above Rp 10,000 a liter and followed by palm oil scarcity in the market.

There were violation on domestic market obligation (DMO). The higher price in foreign market has lured some palm oil producer to export CPO illegally. Indonesia is the biggest CPO producer with annual production up to 20 million tones. The domestic demand only 4.5 million tones while 13-14 million tones were exported. So there were around 2-3 million tones which cannot be traced.

Gorengan once considered as low class snacks for it cheapness but enough to make you saturated. But its price was soar hike due to govt incapability to control domestic palm oil price. (source: elinpike.wordpress)

Now the CPO price has gone down to the level of US$ 500-700 a ton (around US$ 650 a tone in Malaysia CPO bourse). But in Carrefour hypermarket website I still found the price of palm oil still persisted around Rp 11,000 a liter. My friend in Kuala Lumpur told me gorengan in Malaysia is more expensive as you can only get three pieces for 1 RM (Rp 2,800). But palm oil price in Kuala Lumpur is only around Rp 6,500 a liter. Malaysia was second to Indonesia in CPO production but they can maintain palm oil price lower than we are. So, in the case of inflation on gorengan price I notice the dominant factor is incapable govt.

The bottom line is, there is no actual sensible reason to compare govt debt to the respective national GDP.  And govt always ignorance about the real wealth when they talk about fiction GDP numbers. When a govt realize that their debt is still in a reasonable mount compare to GDP, it will lead to a justification that it is okay to add more debt because a controlled debt is good for development and business. It will lured to a new debt as the most practical way to solve budget deficit. ”It is OK  to borrow some more because the debt to GDP ratio still secure.”

So, it will hard to see a creative govt who can make a breakthrough for not always being depended on debt, either from foreign or domestic source. Economic development can be done without debt if we can shift our paradigm. Govt will no longer deeply involved in any big project such electricity or infrastructure. Just let the state owned  enterprise to deal with as Indonesia’s banks still have great capabilities to provide fund –which is cheaper than any govt bond–  for any project as long as there is a govt guarantee.  There are still great amount of public money that just being kept in banking system due to moderate loan to deposit ratio policy. Indonesian big banker just put the idle fund on central bank certificate (SBI) and they enjoy the interest paid by tax payers.

See, indebted doesn't mean we cannot have a joyful life. Big thanx to our generous creditors

Benjamin Disraeli (1884-1881) once said (and quoted by Mark Twain):
There are three kind of lies: Lies, Damned Lies and Statistic !!!

His life record was so perfect, unparalleled by any other Indonesian recent politician. Born as the only son of a low rank soldier in the poorest region of East Java. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY),  came to earth at noon of 9th September 1949 when the hot sun rays baked the already dried hills of Seribu mountain range of Pacitan regency. SBY born among big families of Tremas Islamic boarding school (pesantren). He inherit the blood of the founder of Pesantren Tremas from his mother and founder of Pesantren Gontor from his father.

Little SBY live with his uncle, the chief of Tremas village, since his father was always moving to carry out his military duty. Even as the only son, he is not spoiled. Life was hard and so did young SBY hard to himself. His intelligence made him reference for his school friends especially who asked him to teach them in science, mathematics, and English language. Although it mean he must walk kilometers away to go to his friend’s house only to teach them. As reward, his friend treat him meal.

Always being number one in school. Even in the first six month in military academy in Magelang, Central Java, SBY must study hard to compete with better educated cadets from big cities. In the first year in military academy, cadet SBY only got one honourable medal for his intelligence. But during his military training, cadet SBY earn seven military medals and became best graduate of army military academy class of 1973.

Cadet SBY in Military Academy. This picture maybe taken as SBY receive one of seven honourable medals he earned during his basic military education between 1969-1973 in Magelang, stamped by Sarwo Edhie Wibowo, the governor of military academy later became his father in law. (Source:sbypresidenkoe.blogspot)

Always became leader. Young SBY loved to organize his friends in sport and music activities and. He also had his own band with borrowed music instruments. Volley ball was his favorite sport since he didn’t like to play football, the most popular sport in Indonesia, because it always full of body contacts and violence. SBY led his friends to a volley game against other village boys, even it means they must go on foot for the game tens of kilometers away. Hiking and adventuring was the middle name of young SBY.

In military academy, SBY was commander of cadet corps with 3,000 cadets under his responsibility. It helped him to be close to Major Gen Sarwo Edhie Wibowo’s families, governor of military academy and the legend of the red beret corps Command Regiment of Army (now called Kopassus, the Army Special Forces Command) who helped General Soeharto quell communist party in late 1960s. In Sarwo Edhie’s residence he met Kristiani Herrawati (Ani), third daughter of Sarwo Edhie, who later became his lovely wife.

They married on 30th of July 1976 ini Hotel Indonesia, Jakarta. Their wedding party was held together with two other Ani’s sister wedding who also married with young military officer, Hadi Utomo (military academy class of 1970) and Erwin Sudjono (class of 1975). Hadi Utomo was not so succesfull pursued his military career and he resign when still a colonel. Hadi later became chief of Orderliness and Security Office of DKI Jakarta province and now as chief of Democrat Party founded by SBY. Erwin Sudjono succeed to earn three stars as commander of Army Startegic Reserve Command (Kostrad) and TNI general chief of staff. Due to his age, he failed to compete for Army Chief of Staff (KSAD) position. He succumb to younger officers who graduated earlier from military academy, Agustadi SP and Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin (both from class of 1974) but one year younger than Erwin.

Smart, tall, and best graduate. SBY free to chose to build his military career between two best units in Army, Kostrad or Kopassus. He destined to join Kostrad as Kopassus didn’t open registration by the time SBY was graduated from military academy. The 17th Airborne Infantry Brigade (Brigif Linud 17) Kujang I was his choise, a legendary units in the Army who fought bravely both Dutch occupation and Darul Islam rebellion in west Jawa during independence war in late 1940s. Young soldier SBY soon became a new born star. Smart and full of initiatives, and SBY always given duty which prevoiusly only fit for an officer whose rank two levels higher than his.

East Timor jungle was the first test for his combat abilities after he finished ranger course in Fort Brag US, 1976. He missed Operation Seroja in 1975 when ABRI (Indonesian Armed Forces) launch large scale invasion on Timor-Portuguese. Captain SBY led his company to search Fretilin rebels in the heart of East Timor jungle during 1976-1977. Every weeks his troops always succeed to catch some Fretilin members. SBY came back to East Timor jungle when he was a major, to lead Battalion 744 comprised a large majority of Timor natives, very brave and loyal soldier.

SBY spend his time in jungle around his soldiers so he earn epithet the ‘jungle commander’. He did so to keep combat contacts with the rebels who fought and hide in jungle. In mid 1986, his battalions crushed a Fretilin hideout in south west of East Timor. Lay there the only living Fretilin members bleed from the bullet wound, left by his runaway comrades. It was a custom among ABRI soldiers in East Timor to execute wounded enemies on site, but SBY managed to prevent them to do so. ”Pick him up! Search his identity!” yelled Major SBY to the stunned trigger happy soldiers.

They found the prisoner was Yulio Sarmento, a prominent Fretilin leader. SBY told battalion medics to nurse Sarmento’s wound. Next morning, wounded Sarmento evacuated by helicopter to Dili and then to Jakarta. From Sarmento, ABRI retrieve important informations about Fretilin warfare tactics and weakness in ABRI’s combat operation methods. His battalions earned award from ABRI high command for the living jungle trophy. From those days, ABRI always encourage soldiers to keep wounded enemy prisoner alive.

Not only combating Fretilin, SBY also introduce combat training video for soldier who would be assigned in East Timor. His superior consider the idea was so original, but maybe SBY had learned this during his course in US. SBY also gave special combat train for his soldiers.  The approach gained him loyalty from his men. SBY military experience enriched with tens of course abroad especially in US. He submitted in jungle warfare course in Panama with US Army 82th Airborne Division and in Malaysia where he learned jungle combat tracking, a method later implemented in Kostrad.

Colonel Prabowo (red beret Kopassus) and Colonel SBY (green beret Kostrad) in a military ceremony in Jakarta. Two bright stars of ABRI despite both never see ultimate career in military. (Source: MP.net)

When SBY became commander of Brigif Linud 17/Kujang I, the Army surprised as SBY proposed a war game in brigade level. Army was accustomed for division strength war games so they cannot provide money for a brigade war games. SBY moved on. Army high rank officers stunned when they saw the movement of thousands of Brigif 17′s infantry soldiers, tanks from cavalry, supported by artillery barracks and even combat helicopter, plus a pass by of air forces jet fighters in Sentul hill range, Bogor. Applause and all praise was to the architect behind the war games.

Enter Political Arena

During his military career, as a well educated and open minded soldier, SBY was not far from politic issue as ABRI those days also deeply involved in politic with its dual role policy (dwi fungsi ABRI). His short assignment as commander of Military Garrison Command (Korem) 072/Pamungkas in Yogyakarta was the biggest contribution for his political view. The atmosphere was highly influenced by large numbers of prominent academics, student activists and NGO, press and also artists lived in so called ‘The City of Students’. And SBY inhale it so deeply as he always invite students and press for discussions. Known student activists from Yogyakarta who later become his most loyal supporter during presidency campaign in 2004 were Aam Sapulete and Andi Arief, both now become comissioners of PT PN VII and PT Pos Indonesia, the state owned companies.

In the heyday of his intellectual venture, after only seven months in Yogyakarta, in October 1995 SBY was called to Jakarta for another duty. ABRI HQ in Cilangkap, Jakarta, appointed him as UN Military Chief Observer in Bosnia. To fit the duty, SBY must be promoted to brigadier general. His first star earned only in 21 years and hardly any other officer can overtake his record as military organization now was obesed with so many colonels queued for promotion to brigadier general. Most of them stranded in the colonel position until retired, included SBY’s brother in law Hadi Utomo.

Three star or lieutenant general rank earned within only 25 years in 1998 as SBY became ABRI Social Politic Chief of Staff (Kasospol ABRI), in the erly days of Indonesia political turmoil so called reformation. Asian economic crisis led to political crisis as students and civil elements lost their trust and impatience to President Soeharto. They want reform.

ABRI cannot hinder this transformation, in fact they were the objects of political demonization for their role always backing up Soeharto regime. SBY was in charge of managing the course of military reformation within ABRI. As an intellectual and open minded person, SBY invited many politic and economic scholars to Cilangkap for a discussion. Many of them was known for always criticizing Soeharto regime and ABRI dual role. Many conservatives officers in ABRI also criticize SBY policies. But the wind of change was so great as ABRI can only trailed behind.

SBY led a team of progressive military officer to design the blue print of ABRI transformation. He liquidate political body within ABRI included his post and he change the name to ABRI Territorial Chief of Staff (Kaster ABRI). ABRI dual role was disbanded and only focus on defence as Indonesian Police (Polri) who responsible for security was separated from ABRI. ABRI regain his former name TNI (Indonesia National Armed Force).

One prominent political analyst from The Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), Ikrar Nusa Bhakti, recently told that SBY actually was not so supportive with the idea of diminishing ABRI’s dual role (dwi fungsi) once created by General Abdul Haris Nasution in 1960s  after Soekarno fall. As researchers from LIPI presented their paper about the importance of ABRI to leave its dwi fungsi pursuant to democratic system, SBY bring to them some political experts from Gadjah Mada University. The Gadjah Mada University team also presented paper about ABRI’s dwi fungsi claimed as a result of intensive research. Their conclucion was,  Indonesian people still need ABRI’s dual role and there was lack of refusal. ”From that day I know that SBY try  to please his conservatife superior,” said Ikrar on an online news service. Still to date,  SBY as president earn less respect from Ikrar.

Joint Cabinet

Indonesia held second democratic election in 1999, after first election in 1955, and formed new government to replace President BJ Habibie, who acted president after Soeharto resignation in 20th May 1998. This was a transition government, product of political compromise between Golkar as former ruling party, new breed political parties, and TNI who still maintain their presence–though reduced to half–in parliament. SBY was called to joint the Presiden Abdurrahman Wahid (Gus Dur) administration as representation of TNI.

Upon hearing his appointment as minister of mining and energy, SBY was shocked. It was the most difficult decision to make by an army officer who fall in loved with his military career. Accepting the Gus Dur offering mean he must retire from TNI, a rule that was made by himself as the architect of military reform. ”My ultimate goal as a soldier was to be army chief of staff,” said SBY.

The first challenge as minister of energy came in April 2000, fuel scarcity due to failure in Balongan refinery system which took three month for repairment. It worsened by when Al Ahmady refinery in Kuwait which Indonesia import HMOC for gasoline production, was also broke down. It was summer holiday so fuel consumption in North America was so high and crude oil supply was hard to get even in spot market. Until Balongan reparation finished, Pertamina (Indonesia state oil company) decided to move fuel refinery to Singapore Petroleum Company.

SBY biggest contribution during his minsitry in energy and mining was bringing draft on Oil and Gas Law to the parliament, later signed during Purnomo Yusgiantoro ministry. In October 2000, SBY was appointed as coordinating minister on politic, social, and securities (menkopolsoskam). Here he encounter the political confrontation between President Gus Dur and parliament, and between president and vice president Megawati. Gus Dur wanted to call for presidential decree to disband the parliament, but SBY persuade him not to do so. Later SBY was given presidential order to restore the political crisis and to negotiate with parliament.

The Indonesian parliament (DPR) still unsatisfied with Gus Dur policy and they summon for a special session of assembly of People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR), the highest political body who gave mandate to president, in July 2001. Gus Dur relieved SBY from his position, later SBY refuse other ministry position offered by Gus Dur. But Gus Dur later fall, replaced by Megawati.

Parliament looking for person to fill position of vice president. Some MPR factions offer SBY to run for vice president. SBY felt so confident after TV polling showed he was so popular, especially  after he was relieved by Gus Dur but still manage good relationship with his former boss. SBY failed as only gain third position after Hamzah haz and Akbar Tandjung. It gave him first  political lesson and later he decide to found his own political party, Democrat Party.

President Megawati offered him position as Menkopolkam only to face civil conflicts in Ambon, Poso, North Molucca, and Kalimantan which took thousands of life. In May 2003, Aceh peace talk between Indonesian governtment and Aceh Liberation Movement (GAM) facilitated by Henry Dunant Center in Tokyo was broke. GAM rejected Indonesian offering for large autonomy on Aceh. SBY recommend military emergency state in Aceh to Megawati which lead to TNI large scale military operation to suppress GAM armed rebellion.

Early 2004, there were crack in relationship between SBY and Megawati as SBY declare to run for presidency in coming 2004 election. In March 2004 SBY resign from Megawati cabinet, followed by Jusuf Kalla (JK) from coordinating ministry of people’s welfare who run as vice president candidate for SBY. SBY and JK win the election, and the rest of stories you already knew….

SBY run for the second term. Instead pairing with politician from coalition parties, SBY asked Boediono, an economist and central bank governor, to accompany him for 2009-2014. SBY win presidential election with eormous 60 pct of vote.

Quo Vadis SBY?

Supposing SBY chose Kopassus instead of Kostrad, what would happen? But God destined him to joint Kostrad because it was suit for him. SBY was not a type of soldier like Sutiyoso, former Jakarta governor, who joined Kopassus in his early military career. He was not suit to be a soldier who only wear t-shirt and blue jeans sneaking around East Timor border to carry out infiltration misson prior to Seroja Operation in 1975. SBY came to East Timor as regular infantry unit and he never involved in military intelligent operations.

But SBY political venture may be compared to Vladimir Putin of Russia, in less extreme measure. After the fall of Sovyet Union, they watched their beloved country once scared by US was torn apart and humiliated by the world as economic situation was very bad. It worsened by political conflict between Presiden Boris Yeltsin and the remnant of communist parties who wanted to bring Russia back to its golden red era. Putin was so concerned and he assemble power to rebuild Russia. The former KGB (Sovyet secret service) officer gathered his military officer comrades in a villa by the Komsomol’skoye lake in St Petersburg in mid 1990-an.

Putin and SBY was alike. SBY witnessed Indonesia post Soeharto era ablazed in political turmoil, unstable government, and battered by so many civil conflicts. Indonesia was in the brink of balkanization as separatism issue was so rampant, either to gain independence by armed rebellion or only political struggle for large regional autonomy. As for Putin, he want to take over Russia from the incapable political pundits.

Putin join Nash Dom-Rossiya (Our Home is Russia/NDR) Party of Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin. Slow but sure, he gain important post in Yeltsin administration. Putin won election in 2000 and become president of Russia. SBY just maybe has the same thought as Putin, but only after he brought his dream down to become chief of the army, and dragged by the wave of reformation.

And after both become president in their own country, the difference between Putin and SBY widened. SBY chose conventional path, carefully planned gradual change. Putin chose the more radical ones. The Red Bear wokened up from its drunkenly sleep. Putin nationalized private corporations belongs to Russian tycoons troubled by law issue or deliberatley trapped by Putin intelligence. Less than 10 years, Moskow once lingered with people queued for bread rations transformed to a modern capitalist city. Moskow boiled up in fast economic development and become the most expensive city in the world as its road full of luxury European cars and billboards of jet set life style goodies.

Indonesia and Russia was not so difference in term of abundant natural resources and big populations. The same tools can made the same result on both. SBY was an infantry soldier, he was not intelligent officer just like Putin. Is it possible Indonesia could be build differently if only SBY just put more patience to enter Kopassus?

But, Indonesia and Russia has great basic difference. Russia keep its enemy by always feeling threatened by her neighboring western Europe and US, and its former satellite states such Ukraine. As Indonesia didn’t like enemies. Indonesia impose free and active for its foreign policies and always wanted to build good relationship with other country.

Soekarno once always said about unfinished revolution. Soekarno created enemies for Indonesia. The first enemy was called western capitalist and imperialist. Indonesia confrontate Dutch on West Papua issue and seek war with British on the founding of Sabah and Serawak state for Malaysian territory which actually British dispute with Philippine….

DISCLAIMER:
it was not a suggeston to vote or not to vote on the coming Indonesia presidential election. All data taken from SBY biografi so its reliability guaranteed.

Batavia during 17th century is the biggest port city in south east Asia, the main port of Dutch East Indies Company (VOC) to control trade in Asia. From Batavia, spices, copper and silk were sent to Europe. (Source: UPT Kota Tua)

Prosperous port city, well organized, and clear river water… Tom Pires on his book Suma Oriental described about Kalapa, a city port of a Hindu Kingdom in Java Island.

Pires was on the voyage of four Portuguese ships sail from Malacca in Malaya peninsula to Java led by de Alvin in 1513. Pires also notes that a port in the estuary of Ciliwung river, later known as Sunda Kalapa, was well governed as there were port master, judge, and port treasurer (mangkubumi).

Sunda Kalapa ruler was Sanghyang Surawisesa whose father Sri Baduga Ratu Jayadewa the king of Pakuan pajajaran, had had him sent to Malacca in previous year to request for help from Alfonso d’ Albuquerque to encounter the coming influence from Islamic Kingdom of Demak and Cirebon. According to Pires, Kalapa administrator only permitted small numbers of Islamic merchant vessel to enter the harbour. But Jakarta historian, Ridwan Saidi, said there was significant numbers of Moslem merchant lived peacefully along with their Hindu host in Sunda Kalapa.

Portuguese sent the second ambassador to Kalapa in 1522 led by Enrique Leme. Leme and Surawisesa  held a friendship and monopoly agreement on nutmeg trade. The friendship of Sunda-Portuguese marked by padrao, a stone monument placed in the shoreline, dated 21 August 1522. Padrao stone was found in 1918, buried under a house in Jalan Cengkeh, near the railway, and now has been kept in Jakarta National Museum. The padrao location shows the shoreline at the time of Surawisesa, a mile south of now existing Sunda Kalapa shoreline. Sediment from Ciliwung river had move the shoreline. When Dutch conquer Kalapa 100 years after Surawisesa, the shoreline had been moved almost a kilometer to north from the padrao. From Pires and other historians, it was estimated population of Pakuan Pajajaran kingdom around 150.000 people and 15.000 lived  in Sunda Kalapa.

The turmoil in Goa, India, affected Portuguese in Malacca so they cannot deliver their promise to build a fortress in Kalapa, as stated in the 1522 agreement, as soon as possible. In 1526, thousand troops from Demak and Cirebon led by Fadhillah Khan (Fatahillah), a prince from Islamic kingdom of Samudera Pasai in northern Sumatera, conquered the Hindu ruler of Sunda Kalapa. Prior to Sunda Kalapa invasion, Demak and Cirebon troops took over the bigger kingdom of Banten, west of Sunda Kalapa.

In 1527 Portuguese sent ships to Kalapa to build fortress without knowing the change of political situation.  On the way to Kalapa, three ships under command of Duarte Cuelho separated from the main armada due to heavy storm. One of the Cuelho ships, a brigantine manned by 30 men, landed some place in Jakarta bay only to face a sudden attack by Fatahillah troops. Outnumbered, unprepared and exhausted by the storm, they were easily slaughtered. The remaining two ships can only assisted with desperate cannon barrage and eventually return to Malacca. Upon the victory, Fatahillah change the city name to Jayakarta, means ultimate victory. It also marked the end of Hindu kingdom of Sunda which had lost her last port.

Dutch East Indies trade company or Vereenigde Oostindische Compagnie (VOC) founded d in 1602, following  suit the foundation of British East India Company in 1600,  sail to east Asia to follow the trail of Portuguese venture of spice trade. First Dutch came to Java was Cornelis de Houtman with four ships arrive in Banten port, the biggest port in south east Asia. They build some wooden godowns in Banten and made huge profit from spice trade. But soon the political situation in Banten was unstable and Dutch seek another place for spice storage before sent to Europe. They notice a small port eastern of Banten, Jayakarta.

VOC came to Jayakarta in 1608.  Those days, Jayakarta was only a residence under the rule of Islamic kingdom of Banten. In 1610 the Dutch obtained permission from Prince Jayawikarta to build a godown or warehouse and a small settlement in the Chinese section of the town of Jayakarta on the eastern bank of Ciliwung estuary. However eight years later they broke their agreement by turning the godown into a well fortified stone fort.

The Dutch cheated prince Jayawikarta, the third ruler of Jayakarta after Fatahillah and Tugabus Angke, who only permitted a wooden lodge for foreign merchant. Dutch build a 150×150 square meter stone fort consisting of Nassau and Mauritius Huis later named Kasteel Jacatra.

For balancing the power, Jayawikarta permitted British merchant to build a wooden lodge on the eastern bank of Ciliwung River, just opposite with the Dutch fort. Jayawikarta build relationship with British without acknowledge from Banten which upset Prince Ranamenggala, the ruler of Banten.

Clashes between Dutch and British backed by Jayawikarta erupted. Dutch and British exchanged cannon shells. Despite being surrounded by Jayawikarta troops, Dutch gain advantages by its venerable stone wall fort built by the sea to ensure they wll never lack of logistic. British and Jayawikarta eventually on the winning side before Ranamenggala, who had been promised payment by the Dutch, sent ships to arrest Jayawikarta. British had no willing to confrontate Banten and so Jayawikarta was arrested and brought back to Banten to receive punishment. Hundreds men in Dutch fort has been saved. In 1619, Jan Pieterszoon Coen came from Moluccas with 16 ship and two thousand troops including hundreds of Japanese mercenaries (ronin) to conquer Jayakarta. The small Jayakarta city situated 500 meters south of the shoreline which no longer had a ruler, easily leveled to the ground. Almost 10.000 resident of Jayakarta mostly Bantenese ousted to inner region.

JP Coen was an accountant. He named the newly conquered land Batavia after Bataaf, a region in Germany where the origin of Dutch ancestor. JP Coen was a strick and ruthless ruler, a style which may be needed since Batavia always under treat from hostile neighbouring including Banten. Coen hate his European mates who always drunk but he liked the Japanese ronins who later helped whim conquered Banda islands and slaughtered hundreds of its natives in 1621. ”The later Coen was too energetic,” said Heeren XVII, board of director of VOC (Maya Jayapal, Old Jakarta).

JP Coen, founder of Batavia. Ruthless commander who managed to withstand against attack from Mataram kingdom in 1627 and 1629. Only cholera could ended his ambition

Coen build the city from the ground. He replace the old fort and build the new one on it, as the starting point of a Batavia citadel. He build stone wall surrounding a complex of European style houses. Segregation policy was common practice as only European, Arab, Chinese, and slaves permitted to live inside the city wall. Before all the surrounding wall completed, Mataram kingdom in Central Java located 550 kilometers east of Batavia launched a large military campaign to Batavia in 1627 and 1629. Heavy resistant from the European and Chinese residents of Batavia combined with the lack of logistic supply for Mataram troops had help to repel the attack. But in 1629, after the last attack from Mataram troops, JP Coen died from cholera which may cause by the act of Dipati Ukur, a Sundanese commander in Mataram forces, who might have poisoned the Ciliwung water in upstream.

Batavia citadel completed in 1850 and became the VOC headquarter for its operation in Asia which include VOC offices in Molucca, India, Bengal, Sri Lanka and Deshima (Nagasaki). After 1733, health condition in Batavia worsened due to bad sanitation system and malaria epidemic. Dead rate in Batavia soar high. About 40-60 pct of newly come European who got no chance to build immunity from malaria died in the first half of year. In the whole first year, the dead rate was so rampant as 70 pct of newly come Europeans dead. Almost 85 thousands VOC employees died in Batavia attributed to malaria.

The impact of disease was so devastating for VOC. Not just paying for the medication bill, high dead rate also made VOC suffered from the lack of ship’s crews to bring spices commodities to Europe, an eminent factor besides corruptions which helped VOC dive into the pit of bankcruptcy. Historian Van der Brug estimates VOC losses mount to 1,2 million gulden a year due to disease alone, whereas in the good time the VOC annual sales peak up to 20 million gulden with only maximum earning of 2 million gulden. Batavia has brought VOC to the golden age and also brought it down.

Situation of life outside the wall of Batavia in 17th century. We can see interacial citizen from Chinese, Arabic, Javanese, Moluccan, and European.

For almost 200 years ruling until bankcruptcy in 1789, there were 26 governor general in Batavia under VOC administration after JP COen. France revolution broke in 1789 followed by Napoleon expansion to Europe resulting the annexation of Dutch kingdom. Herman Willem Daendels came to Batavia in 1808 represent emperor Napolen of France, became the second most influential ruler of Batavia.

Due to worsened health issue, Daendels move the city from the malaria infested beach area to the south, to a place later called Weltevreden (means peace and relax) which now inclued a region of Pasar Baru, Pejambon, and Medan Merdeka. Almost all building and fortress wall in old Batavia was took apart so the building material can be used to build the new city. Almost all canal in old Batavia was fill in with soil to prevent malaria mosquito to breed.

Daendels was just a mere copy of Coen in term of ruling behaviour. Threaten by possible British invasion, Daendels build a thousand kilometers highway along the northern coast of Java from Anyer in the west to Panarukan in the east. Thousands of Javanese and Sundanese workers died during the highway construction. But the Daendels mega project had helped to cut time to travel along the northern coast of Java from 40 days to only six days.

British ruled in India foresee the increasing threat of France power in Dutch Indies, let alone many French pirates and privateers based in Mauritius had marauded British vessel on Indian Oceans. On July 1811, a large British armada of 100 ships loaded with 12.000 troops embarked from Calcutta and Madras to attack Batavia. The British sea invasion led by Sir Samuel Auchmuty, an American who took on British side during 1776 American revolution. John Bastin in his foreword of the book of Major William Thorn’s ‘Conquest of Java’ called it’s the largest British sea armada before world war II.

British troops landed on Cilincing, eastern beach of Jakarta Bay on 4th August 1811. They move along the shore to Kampung Baroe, crossed the Ancol bridge and managed to occupy the old Batavia. British troops marched to Weltevreden trough Molenvliet and only found abandoned houses. From Rijswick, British troops separate in two groups. One groups move to Meester Cornelis (Jatinegara) and found a heavy resistant along their way. The other groups move south to Kampung Melayu to flank out the remaining Dutch forces tried to reinforce Meester Cornelis. Dutch and French troops led by General Jannsen was easily defeated and on 26th August the last troops defended Dutch fortress in Meester Cornelis surrender.

Sir Thomas Stamford Raffles represent British Empire to act as governor general of Batavia did not make any significant progress and he only continue Daendels’s work. Raffles who was a naturalist and interested in science develop Bogor, 50 kilometers south of Batavia, as a place for retreat. He also advocate to build some wildlife conservation forests in Java and Sumatera. Raffles later known as the founder of Singapore, a small port in the tip of Malayan Peninsula once called Tumasik.

For almost 200 years, from early 17th to late 19th century, Onrust held key role in Batavia ship business. Onrust along with its neighbour Kuypher were small islands two miles north of Sunda Kalapa harbour. It is house to VOC shipyard for ship repairment after long journey from Europe. British destroy onrust shipyard facility before they invaded Batavia. (Source: www.geheugenvannederland.nl)

Until the end of 19th century, Batavia has been the capital of Ducth Indies administraton and also the center of export import activites. Economic rule in Batavia only rivaled by Surabaya with its deep water port of Tanjung Perak. Batavia regain its importance as the core of export import activities after Dutch government build deep water port of Tanjung Priok in 1885 to replace Sunda Kalapa which no longer suitable for large steam vessel.

Canal in Nordwijk (now Jalan Juanda), Batavia, in late 19th century. Canal was a common scenery in Batavia along with its garden and indies architecture helped to gain its famous nickname as queen of the east. (Source: www.geheugenvannederland.nl)

Japanese occupation in Indonesia from 1942 until 1945 did not make any progress for the city except replace the name from Batavia to Jakarta, the name which previously used for only 100 years before VOC rule in the early 17th century. Governor Ali Sadikin (1966-1977), once a marine general, regarded as ‘Father of Development of Jakarta’ turn the city from a ‘big village’ during 1950 to a metropolis in early 1980. Governor Sutiyoso (1998-2007), a former army general, proposed to build an integral development of Jakarta with surrounding urban area such Tangerang, Bekasi, Depok and Bogor into  a concept called Jakarta megapolitan.

Jakarta now the capital city of Indonesia, still play important role in south east Asia region. A crowded house to more than 10 million inhabitant which inherit the main problem that had engaged by its founder, from flood to urbanization. (Source: Getty Images)

After 2002 Bali bombing, with help from US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Polri formed a small unit of Special Detachment 88 (Densus 88 ) whose members mostly recruited from Brimob (Mobile Brigade) unit, a special police unit to crack down heavy armed criminal. It became operational in 2003.

Within Army (TNI AD), there had been a small team in the elite forces Kopassus (Army Special Force Command) which called Detachment 81 (Den 81) Gultor who specialized to handle anti terror operation.  Along with Kopassus reorganization, Den 81 then become Satuan (unit) 81 Gultor (Sat 81).

Marine well known for special unit called Detachment Jala Mengkara (Denjaka), means ‘Sea Devil’. Also within Navy there was a special forces  called Komando Pasukan Katak (Kopaska) or underwater special unit (frogmen).

Denjaka recruit mostly from Marine Recon Unit (Intai Amfibi) and few from Kopaska,  whilst Kopaska recruits are from Navy sailor. But both unit have ability to conduct CT operation in marine environment. It is obvious that Denjaka better trained and equipped than Kopaska since its deployment can only done under Chief of TNI command.

And Airforce, they already have Detachment 90 Bravo under Air Forces Special Force (Paskhas AU) to do CT job.

From left to right: Gegana Polri with US gifted Colt M-4, Orange beret Den Bravo with H&K MP-5, Kopassus's red berret Sat 81 Gultor also holding H&K MP-5, Marine Recon (Taifib) with Daewoo K-7 though not considered as CTU and the far right Denjaka I guess carry a H&K 416, same external appearance with M-4. Most of TNI CTU main weapon are MP-5 which less power than M-4. (Source: MP.net)

All TNI’s CTU had been assembled long before 9/11 or Bali Bombing, but since the terror issue emerge their role and appearance known to public more frequent. But public may not aware that we have not only four CTUs.

After 9/11 and Bali Bombing, alot of money pour into anti terror program enough to drive Indonesia armed forces and Polri to such CTU euphoria.

Polri not only develop Densus-88 since it already has Gegana Detachment as special response unit specialized in explosives disposal. Now Gegana is in Regimental level under Brimob and the official name is Satuan Gegana. Despite the main focus is in explosive disposal, it also has ability in counter terror, hostage release operation and also deal with heavy armed criminal. In many occasion, Gegana personnel seen use the same equipment as Densus 88. After receiving anti terror task and budget, maybe Polri also develop Gegana for CTU role along with the formation of Densus 88.

Closer look to Gegana Polri. It is hard to differentiate between Gegana and Densus 88 when both on their combat suit because they use same suit, equipment, and weaponry. Look on all those gears. One thing is clear. Gegana (and Densus 88 ) are well equipped and even better armed than CTU from TNI. Their weapon are mixed between M-4, Steyr AUG, and H&K MP-5. They even got Benelli Shotgun. (Source:MP.net)

In Army, things get worse. Beside Kopassus, Army has several newly established special forces that also provide counter terror special weapon and equipment for a little unit in their own.

Army assemble two special forces to deal with increasing gun fight with Free Aceh Movement (GAM) during military campaign in Aceh during 2003-2004. Peleton Intai Tempur or Tontaipur (Combat Recon Unit) and Raider battalions formed under Kostrad (Army Strategic Reserve Command) by General Ryamizard Ryacudu, Army Chief of Staff.

War is over and Aceh in peace. But still, Tontaipur and 10 battalions of Raider formed for conventional warfare still in service. Both now assemble a special unit for counter terror duty though not as fully equipped as the already existing CTU in TNI and Polri. Most of their weapon not equipped with common close quarter combat apparatus such telescope, quick aim electronic dot sight, infra red dot, or maybe just a mere forehand grip.

Tontaipur during counter terrorist exercise in Kodam Jaya (Jakarta Military Territorial). Micro Galil has been standard carbine since their first inception and ideal for close quarter combat. You only need to provide this combat recon unit with special suit and gear to convert them to a standard CTU.(Source:MP.net)

As more conventional unit than Tontaipur, Raider only equipped with standard carbine Pindad SS-1 V5. They acquired Daewoo K-7 and fewer H&K MP5 to fill sub machine gun role. With special combat suit and gear, they are likely ready to play CT games. (Source:MP.net)

Tontaipur and Raiders always involved in anti terror exercise held outside capital Jakarta as they already stationed in several military region command (Kodam). But with the already exist CTU units in TNI, the deployment of Tontaipur and Raider to handle terrorist attack situation directly still unlikely. In a critical situation which needs precise action, one must chose the best CTU to be in charge. It means the best trained and equipped CTU under TNI.

And we cannot left Paspampres (Presidential Security Forces) behind. They also has special equipment for counter terror operation to protect president and vice president whenever under terror attack. The Paspampres members come from TNI elite forces. Off course their deployment only related to VVIP security.

Paspampres (presidential guard) on an exercise. I'm sure they always carry those equipment along with presidential convoy. The only party who has such guts and capability to assassinate an Indonesian president is only the men in armed force itself. (Source:MP.net)

So, which one is the best?

By reputation and experience, it is Sat 81 Gultor of Kopassus. Kopassus is the oldest special forces and has been fielded in many military operations from Dwikora, Trikora, and East Timor. Sat Gultor alone was highly admired with their success in two famous hostage release operation, Operation Woyla in Don Muang Airport Thailand in 1981 and Mapenduma Papua in 1996.

Regarding multi environment mission, we cannot put Denjaka aside. Their member has exceptional ability in sea operation. Almost all Denjaka members can swim across the 16 mile Sunda Strait. Sunda Strait swim race  usually held as annual event to commemorate Marine anniversary.

But regarding equipment, other CTU must envy to Densus 88 which development and assembly directly assisted by US government along with the War on Terror policy. Densus 88 members were trained by FBI and maybe CIA in Polri training facility in Sukabumi, West Java.

Densus 88 members trained under US instructor during SWAT conference in Albuquerque, New Mexico. In a confined room raid they still using M-4, more lethal than MP-5 mostly used by CTU from TNI.

After 9/11, US government seek ally to combat and hunt down every terrorist linked to Al Qaeda. Indonesia and Philippine are too important to be missed by Bush administration.

Philippine was a traditional ally of US since they face rebellion launched by Moslem guerrilla seek for independence in southern Minadanao region.

Indonesia is a largest Moslem country also face threat from a small but dangerous group called Jama’ah Islamiyah (JI), regarding to US intelligence JI was a branch of Al Qaeda operate in south east Asia. JI allegedly responsible for several bomb attack in Bali and Jakarta which took hundreds live of innocent civilian.

But War on Terror policy applied differently between Indonesia and Philippine. In Philippine, US helped the Armed Forces to suppress the Moslem rebellion. In Indonesia, US chose to cooperate with Polri since Indonesia Armed Forces, especially Kopassus, still lingered with many human right violation cases during and at the end of Soeharto regime.

So, Densus 88 enjoy the luxury others CTU hardly to get. Densus 88 have full access to US made equipment the Indonesian military units had been restricted to.

In 2006, Major General Syaiful Rizal, commander of Kopassus, complained to Juwono Sudarsono, the Minister of Defense, about the lack of equipment. For close quarter battle, Sat 81 Gultor only equipped with H&K MP-5 sub machine gun but only effective in limited distance or closed environment such building.

”We need a special weapon useful for engaging close combat. it would be smaller from standard rifle but bigger than what we have now,” said Syaiful.

Syaiful still recognize that Pindad (Army Industries) had provide carbine version (shorter barrel version) of SS-1 standard rifle named SS-1 V5.

”But we need a rifle that can be fitted with many equipment such telescope and infra red,” Syaiful replied.

He didn’t mention the specific names of the weapon. But it is obvious he refer to Colt M-4, a carbine version of M-16, already acquired by Densus 88. It is the gun many western special forces depend on, but Kopassus hardly to get legally from US due to military embargoes despite being lifted recently and human right issue.

Human right issue alway and still haunted Kopassus. When Kopassus joint the exercise held by US Pacific Command in Hawaii 2006, some human right activist filed protest to US Congress.

A JI suspected member brought to Jakarta by Densus 88 after a raid in Palembang found big numbers of explosive devices. You can see a complete equipment of Densus 88.

Densus 88 Polri regarded as civilian forces and Polri human right violation records during Soeharto regime was regarded as  collateral damage from TNI’s policies since Polri once was under TNI (during Soeharto, the TNI name was ABRI).

Equipment acquired by Densus 88 is US standard, maybe can be compared to FBI hostage rescue team and US police SWAT. It still unknown how much fund donated by US government to Polri for anti terror mission until now. But it is estimated that not less than $ 100 million been given to Polri. Densus 88 assembly alone needed $ 16 million in 2003.

Nowadays, equipment was not an issue since there are  lot of option for close combat weapon. I saw Marine acquired some H&K G-36 and H&K 416 though in limited numbers, while Kopassus has several Sig-550 in their inventory. Pindad also deliver SS-2 V5 considered better than its predecessor SS-1. The embedded picatinny rail made SS-2 V5 easy to be fitted with many combat gadget.

It is good to have many CTUs to ensure security in all condition and environment. Indonesian people shall not fear any possible Mumbay like terror attack in the future because our CTUs are well trained and some very well equipped.

The question is, is it all CTUs needed? What about the chain of command for deploying the CTUs. How do we define in which situation and place which CTU be needed?

When a terrorist raid a building in Jakarta, who will be in charge of hostage crisis situation? Polri’s Densus 88 or Kopassus‘s Sat-81 Gultor? What if the terrorist attack a village in the middle of jungle located in the middle of remote island. Will it be Sat-81 Gultor”s or Denjaka‘s job? How about terror attack happen in a highway outside city and near the jungle. Should Gegana or Densus 88 allowed to joint?

I just still still wonder on what occasion CTU from Tontaipur and Raider will likely be deployed or involved. It is obvious they are not the first tier CTU in Indonesia despite Raider 10 battalions with each own CTU was better spread across Indonesia than any other CTU mostly located in Jakarta. TNI chief of staff and Polri should talk together.

Issue on Islamic Terror Jihadist

Almost all CTU exercise always related to recent terror issue such Al Qaeda and JI. On March 2006, Navy conducted anti terror exercise for  Denjaka in Malacca Strait. The scenario is, a group of 15 terrorists hijacked passenger ship KM Kelud departed from Belawan, Medan, steamed along Malacca Strait bound for Tanjung Balai Karimun, Riau Islands, near Singapore.  Denjaka will strike from air and sea, release the hostage and capture or take down the terrorist.  And you know, the terrorist group wear Arabic kaffiyeh scarf and gamis (Arabic style shirt).

On December 2008 president gave order to TNI for conducting a joint anti terror exercise with all TNI and Polri forces and held in several cities at same time like Jakarta, Bandung, Semarang, Yogyakarta, Surabaya and in Malacca Strait. It was the largest joint exercise. More than 6.500 troops and police unit participate in this exercise. The scenario always the same, hostage crisis.

Whether it is just a coincidence as the joint exercise was held just three week after Mumbay massacre committed by Islamic hardline group seek for Kashmir Independence from India. And Indonesian government says the exercise was an answer for such Mumbay terror treat. Only this time, I didn’t see the bad guys wear outfit symbolize certain group.

See. The bad guy in anti terror joint exercise last December 2008 only wear ordinary thug uniform. No more kaffiyeh or funny Arabic thobe. He was practically overwhelmed by CTU operator from Kopassus and Denjaka

Indonesia has some experience regarding hostage crisis scenario. We remember Woyla Operation in 1981 when some Islamic radical group led by Imran who claimed the action from Komando Jihad (Jihad Command), took hostage of Garuda Airlines passenger plane Woyla. We may easily called Imran and Komando Jihad as terroris movement

Held hostage scenario repeated again when some Free Papua Organization (OPM) guerrillas kidnapped foreign scientists in Papua jungle in 1996. Hostage release mission conducted by Kopassus, led by Prabowo Subianto, regarded as one of the best special force operation. Until now, Indonesian government never declared or asked United Nation to described OPM as terrorist group which can hampered their political and fund raising activities in foreign country.

But there was another group from Indonesia hold all time hostage record. It may surprised you. They were Republik Maluku Selatan (South Molucca Republic– RMS) fanatics who live in Holland. You can make a list of RMS terror action in Holland despite no one called them terrorist.

On Desember 1975,  six Moluccan youths raided Indonesian consulate in Amsterdam while other seven RMS activist take hostage of passenger train near Wijster. On May 1977, RMS take hostage of 50 train passenger near De Punt while other group take hostage of school in Bovensmilde. In the morning of 13th March 1978 three RMS activist seized the province hall in Assen. The motive of all this terror conduct are the same, south Molucca independence from Indonesia occupation. It doesn’t make any sense as to why RMS terrorize Holland, not Indonesia. Why bite the hand that gives you food?

Until now, RMS still considering a dangerous separatist movement in Maluku Province. Many believe they are behind the Molucca civilian conflict in 2000 that cost thousand lives. Cakalele dance incident performed by RMS activist before President SBY during visit to Ambon in 2007 was one of many hard evidence.

Despite their power in Maluku is very small, it is so obvious that RMS separatist that never acknowledge Indonesia’s sovereignity still want to make revolt. But still, no one called them a terrorist group. And TNI never held anti terror exercise using RMS as the actor.

Until recently, JI and Al Qaeda operator in Indonesia never took hostage and prefer stealthy attack by using bomb targeting civilian. They never claim their actions, let alone to make such open gun attack like Mumbay massacre.

In this case, JI and Al Qaeda are very different from any terrorist or free movement group in Islamic world during 1970-1980. The old time Islamist group always claimed their terror action to show the world what they capable of. But now we have so called jihadist terrorist who acted cowardly like a damned ghost.

Some people believe there are ghosts but never see them. It is easier to deal with ghost than any real one, especially in anti terror exercise scenario.

People still remember years of SBY administration which darkened by so many disasters, either natural or man made. Tsunami struck Aceh and Nias in the end of 2004 took hundred thousand lives, earthquake in Yogyakarta May 2006 with dead toll amount 5,000 and many more left homeless, then followed by mudflow in Sidoarjo that drove thousands of people out of their village. The disaster caused by careless natural gas drilling activities of PT Lapindo Brantas which partly owned by Bakrie Group, known as SBY close ally and his biggest financier during 2004 election campaign.

In Yogyakarta, city where SBY spend years as regional military commander, SBY directly lead the earthquake relief mission. He even move his office to Yogyakarta for five days. But only after Jusuf Kalla, the vice president, who later took over the job and bring relief mission in Yogyakarta on the fast right track. At least at the moment.

It was Javanese people, the same ethnic as SBY, who made fun on SBY’s name. SBY, in Javanese joke stands for Susilo Bambang nYudonyowo, the last word meaning ‘took lives’ for so many disaster during his government.

People getting more upset when SBY administration decided to raise the fuel price in October 2005 with almost 100 percent due to sharp hike in world oil price. Indeed it makes inflation in 2005 rose to 17 percent. Despite Indonesian economic engine still running normal, it weaken people purchasing power dearly. It was the second hike after March 2005 when SBY adjusted fuel price up to 50 percent.

The fuel price hike effectively hampered the government poverty aleviation program wich targeted to bring head count poverty from 14.9 percent down to 8.9 percent of population in 2009. Since fuel price directly affect the transportation cost, it almost automatically boost basic needs commodities price such rice, meat, fish and palm oil. More people can’t afford to fulfill their daily basic needs and the numbers who live under poverty line rose from 31 to 39 million of 220 million population.

Again in the end of May 2008, SBY administration gave up when world oil price keep going crazy, breaking all time price record above $100 a barrel. Avoid to increase fuel subsidy, SBY gave the last blow to people by raising fuel price for the third time by 30 percent. More people feel upset to the ruling party and the opposition become more confident to face the coming 2009 election.

SBY on a rally in Gelora Boeng Karno Stadium Jakarta, during election campaign mid 2004. Before hundred thousand of Democrat Party's followers, SBY promised he will bring back the glory of Indonesia. To fulfill his promises, SBY truly need big luck which has surprisedly brought him into power in 2004.

But life was not always predictable as it was before. Then came the world financial crisis to bring oil price went down rapidly to $40 a barrel as if it was never touched $140 a barrel before. Hot debate in Indonesian parliament as to whether government be granted or not with a full authority to lift fuel subsidy at will in case world oil price touch unbearable level, soon become outdated. In only matter of days, Indonesian government gain first time profit from subsidized fuel distribution

In fact, Indonesian are no longer enjoying fuel subsidy because the fuel they bought in gas station belongs to Pertamina (government oil enterprise) are more expensive than fuel sold in America. And SBY exploit this momentum to bring the fuel price back before May 2008 hike, but this time by three times cut.

SBY’s Democrat Party (PD) put political advertisement in television to proclaim that SBY cabinet is the first Indonesian administration to cut the fuel price ever, and they boasted that SBY did it three times. SBY may hope Indonesian already forget about what his administration had been done with three times fuel price hike from 2004 to 2008 with an enormous 200 percent of rise. We all know fuel price goes down was not the merit of SBY administration’s good policy. It mere from the world economic crisis that bring deflation wave which SBY ride on.

SBY enter the 2009 with big confidence as Indonesian economy is not so badly affected by global economic meltdown as did happen to neighbouring countries such Singapore which has suffer two quarters in row of recession. SBY can smile broadly knowing the agriculture development gain success. As of 2008 Indonesian bring back its proud of 1984 rice self sufficiency under Soeharto regime who brought (and forced) green revolution to Indonesian peasant farmer. Despite some troubles in farm fertilizer distribution system, Indonesia ready to become rice and sugar exporter in 2009.

According to Chinese calendar, SBY born in ‘Bull Year’ the same Chinese year of 2009. In free market economic term, bullish year means everybody will be happy as stock price going up and up, although no one in stock market will consider 2009 as such.

Without trying to practise astrology or any supranatural believe, it seems SBY has found his rhyme in 2009. Four years against all odd, but in the last year of his administration everything seems to get better and even easier. At least for SBY and his political pundits.

No doubt, SBY is ready for second victory in 2009 election. But, will it as unpredictable as 2004? Maybe his fate will be destined by what occur in the outside world, as it was before.

Indonesian Armed Forces or Tentara Nasional Indonesia (TNI) launch infiltration operations along north Borneo border against combine task force of British and Australian army. It was not the historical background that draw my attention. I saw a picture of big helicopter resemble AURI (old name of Indonesian Air Force nowadays bears name TNI AU). It was a giant Sovyet Mil Mi-6 Hook, the biggest rotary wing aircraft those days even compared to double rotor American CH-47 Chinook.

Wow, we once a big copper operator. Mi-6 Hook has five rotor blade span 35 meter in diameter with total weight more than 27 ton. But Mi-6 performace was not as good as Sovyet always advertise to foreign buyer, I mean in socialist way. With maximum take off weight of 42 ton, you can only spare 15 ton of payload including fuel and five crews. In theory, Hook can lift up to 10 tones cargo. But practically, this monstrous copper only able to lift 5 tones cargo because it needs so much fuel, up to 10 k liters to fly for only 2.5 hours.

Despite its monstrous size, the ill performer Mil Mi-6 Hook was not considered as a threat by neighbouring countries. AURI acquire 6 to 9 Hooks but only serve for five years until 1968. To shame, all AURI's Hooks was scrapped hence we cannot see them in the Dirgantara museum. credit: Indomiliter.wordpress.com

It far heavier than American heavy lift copper Sikorsky CH-53 Sea Stallion, Bell CH-47 Chinook or French Super Frelon. Its enormous size can only surpassed by its descendant, Mi-26 Helo which can lift up to 20 tones of cargo. But Mi-6 poor lift performance just below the American’s. Chinook can easily lift up to 12.5 tones of cargo.

After tsunami struck Aceh and took hundred thousands lives in late 2004, we saw a big humanitarian assistant mission conducted by armed forces and NGO from many friendly countries. Even it was not a military operation, United States (US) was not hesitate to deploy a big contingent of their armed forces including aircraft carrier and big hospital ship.

And yes, the US airborne team is not complete without their infamous Chinook helicopter, workhorse that served US for more than 40 years. With huge load capability, Chinook indeed very effective platform for delivering aid to remote mountainous areas.

Republic of Singapore Air Forces, Indonesian small neighbors, also deploy their Chinook in Aceh. Therefore, United Nations (UN) sent their old cheap but rugged and simple copper Mi-17. The Russian Mi-17 has less load capability by up to 4 tones of cargo, but it had been heavily fielded in every UN’s humanitarian operations around the globe.

TNI did their best with their relatively small numbers of helicopters. Indonesian Army (TNI AD) only has several squadron of old Bell 205, descendant of legendary Vietnam War veteran UH-1. TNI AU best equipment was Super Puma, license built by government firm PT Dirgantara Indonesia (PT DI) from Eurocopter.

Seeing Chinook and Mi-17′s actions in Aceh, it become obvious that Indonesia need a big aircraft with vertical and take off capability to deal with its inherit natural disaster. In more simple words, it desperately need big chopper.

Chinook can hoist up to 12.5 tones cargo internal and external. With better payload capability, Chinook was an ideal platform for a humanitarian mission. But only several western countries can afford to buy Chinook.

Indonesian government seems interested in Chinook to help Aceh and Nias Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Agency (BRR) duties, but Department of Defence (DoD) chose not to express their interest publicly due to current US military embargo on Indonesia that already being lift by Bush administration. It was not easy decision for TNI, especially TNI AU, to procure US made military stuff, after a decade long being crumpled by embargoes.

But Indonesian always find a way or another. DoD Secretary General, LetGen Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, said Chinook procurement best implemented by BRR, with abundant fund given by donor countries, for its original role would be for Aceh reconstruction program. ”DoD doesn’t have enough money to acquire Chinook. If so, the budget process will took long time. It will be better for BRR to buy Chinooks and TNI will be the operator,” said Sjafrie around 2005.

It was a good idea. As a civilian body, BRR will not affected if US impose military embargo on Indonesia again. Despite US complex system on foreign military purchase, it differentiate between civilian and military version of the airplane bought by foreign country. A spare part of C-130 Hercules transport plane can be considered weapon if the buyer is military institution then become subject to any military embargo.

But this slick schemes never find a way to be accomplished. Indonesia didn’t acquire Chinook and Indonesian Army (TNI AD) opt for Russian Mi-17 instead. My personal guess, Chinook’s price and TNI’s policy to avoid any procurement from US were the main considerations.

But Mi-17 procurement was not anew, it just continuation of troubled TNI AD procurement program in fiscal year 2003 which brought some DoD military officer to court for corruption charge.

TNI AD bought six Mi-17 V5 using DoD export credit facility financed by French private bank, BNP Paribas. The six Mi-17 delivered in August 2008, the last chance, five years after its fiscal year. TNI AD still waiting 10 more, as part of $1 billion export credit facility provided by Russian government, to assemble a full squadron of heavy transport copper. But Russian bureaucratic system seems require big patience.

TNI AD's Mi-17 serve their first humatiarian mission transporting aids for earthquake victims at Lubuk Anau, Agam Residence, West Sumatra, in 9th October 2009. More than 60 countries operate Mi-17 as main transport helicopter. TNI AD will have a full squadron consisting of 16 Mi-17 V5, the backbone of Army Aviation. credit: Getty Image

Actually Indonesia didn’t need any credit facility just to acquire Mi-17. It is the cheapest transport copper among all civilized world. You only need $5 million to bring home one Mi-17, compare to $16 million of fully electronic control Super Puma from PT DI. Double the price and you get Mi-35, helicopter gunship descended from Mi-17 airframe.

Considering price and load capacity, Mi-17 is superb. It can hoist up to 4.5 tones of cargo internally and on external hard point. If need be, it can hold four pods of rocket launcher and you get a combo transport-gunship. Some version has ramp door, suitable for military operation.

Indeed Chinook can lift triple payload of Mi-17′s, but it cost you around $32 million a piece. With money for a Chinook, you get six Mi-17 hence you can lift double of Chinook’s payload. The only think left to consider maybe the maintenance cost of six Mi-17 rotors compared to just four in Chinook.

Until now, UN still one of the big Mi-17 operator. It carry food and medicine to every refugee camp. It is an air truck. ”Even it can carry a small truck onboard and landed everywhere,” said a TNI officer who once served with TNI’s Garuda Expeditionary Forces in Cambodia under UN peace keeping mission.

Mi-17 served in every conflict thus make it battle proven. Mi-17 will fly willingly regardless her country was proxy of western or eastern bloc during cold war. It has undoubted ability in harsh condition, from high humidity of tropical jungle to extremely hot desert and freeze Scandinavian terrain. Everything survive Russian hard life can endure any world challenge.

Mi-17 procurement, again was a real blow for PT DI. For years PT DI was a sole helicopter provider for TNI. PT DI built Super Puma for TNI AU and Puma for TNI AL. PT DI built smaller Bell-205 for TNI AD but the licence has been expired and not continued because it considered obsolete design. It’s ironic, TNI AD later opt to buy Sokol, a Poland optimized version of oldies Russian Mi-2.

Practically, Mi-17 and Super Puma are real contender with their relatively same load capability. But comparation between Mi-17 and Super Puma is not apple to apple. Super Puma western digital avionics and computerized handling are far superior than old Russian electro-mechanical system. ”Super Puma control is so easy. I don’t believe any pilot can crash on Puma,” said a senior TNI AU officer. A luxury that cost you triple than the more simple Mi-17.

CEO of PT DI, Budi Santosa, admitted Russian copper is cheaper but that didn’t make it better than its western counterpart. ”I ensure you will have issue on maintenance. Russian engine known for needing more frequent maintenance than western one. It cost you less when buy, but you will pay more on maintenance. It’s just simple option,” said Budi.

With huge numbers of Mi-17 in TNI arsenal, we can only hope it will ease any humanitarian relief mission around Indonesian archipelago ring of fire with enormous mountainous remote areas. This country needs more heavy transport copper squadron in service with military or civilian institution.

In some and other ways I agree with him. Beside two major parties, Golkar Party and Indonesia Democratic Party on Struggle (PDIP), other parties including Islamic parties have no solid achievement to maintain what they already got back in 2004 general election.

The Justice and Welfare Party (PKS) which amazingly gain 7 percent of vote in 2004 election,  considering they only managed to raise under 3 percent in 1999 election, had proved themself not just a debutante, but the next true rival for major parties. Off course Democrat Party (PD)  has done better to raise more than 8 percent from merely nothing, thanks to charismatic persona of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono then become the president. But without Yudhoyono, and with burdens from his unpopular governmental policies for the coming elections, PD’s future is questionable.

As other Islamic parties such National Mandate Party (PAN) and National Awakening Party (PKB) evidently will be paralyzed by internal friction that split their vote. Both parties gather support from the followers of two biggest Islamic organizations.

PAN which depend on the Muhammadiyah’s people vote now face a new emerging party got support from some elite members and young activist of Muhammadiyah called the Nation’s Sun Party (PMB). Din Syamsuddin, leader of Muhammadiyah, the second largest Muslim group, always state that Muhammadiyah will not lean to any political parties including PAN which claimed being born, at lease helped to be born, by Muhammadiyah.

PKB gain support from the follower of biggest Muslim group Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) but they fail to keep 12.6 percent of vote in 1999 election down to 10.5 percent of vote in 2004. Now they face the worse case. Battered by many internal conflict resulting two party chairman being disbanded by the party’s patron who took the high council leader, Abdurrahman Wahid (Gus Dur), PKB’s future is uncertain.

The recent conflict between some party’s elite led by the chairman Muhaimin Iskandar, and still against Gus Dur, will definitely sunk half of their 2004 vote. Despite Muhaimin won the party’s legal dispute, it will be harder to win Gus Dur’s follower’s heart.

Sun and Crescent Party (PBB) who claimed as the continuation of legendary Masyumi parties, the largest Islamic party once succeed to combine all Muslim organizations, will just find it hard only to maintain their 2 percent vote in 2004 elections, let alone to raise more voter’s support. PBB supported from smaller Muslim organization such as Persatuan Islam (Islamic Union) which only build stronghold in West Java and some part of West Sumatera.

United Development Party (PPP) which survive through Suharto’s repressive regime still got no momentum to support their target of 15 percent vote in 2009 elections. This numbers is their best achievement against the government backed Golkar Party back in 1997, the last elections of Golkar superiority.

PPP depend on support from some Muslim organizations and also from some NU’s traditional supporter during Suharto era. Despite their capability to maintain 8.3 percent of vote in 2004, some PPP’s elite said their supporter majority was getting old and the support from the youth seems hard to get. ”PPP still an oldies party for the older”

Back to PKS, what make it so promising? First, they were backed up by the youngsters movement, especially students. The PKS’s cadre so extensively recruit new members even before they got into college. Taking advantage from the strong religion teaching promise heavenly reward, PKS can run their party without substantial amount of money. The cadre are willingly donate their belonging for the party which considered also for the sake of religion, Islam.

Second, comparing with other parties, even with Islamic parties, PKS still can claim the most clean party regarding to many scandal of corruption, gratification an bribery lingering the house of parliament. With their tagline, clean and care, PKS seems found a way to attract non party afiliated and the new voters.

PKS also known with their social programe in this disaster mongered country. Their cadre can be found where the disaster struck, even in the hit hardest spot.  Proudly bear the PKS logo, either in Tshirt or flag, they build emergency health care center run by medical student and doctors who works voluntarily to help the people and raise party’s popularity.

Common view when march of thousands PKS cadres sworm Jakarta main street as they protested on Islamic issue such as Palestine. No other parties can gather so much people to held rally on issue not so related to Indonesia.

PKS root can be traced back to early 1980, although the true cause still can be traced further. Some Islamic preachers form a religion training movement called tarbiyah succeed to attract students in universities. Their movement then build stronghold in university’s grand mosque. The tarbiyah student manage to win student organizations election such student senate and begin to put their cadre on top positions of many students organizations.

After Suharto fall, tarbiyah movement decide to build an Islamic party called Justice Party (PK) in 1999 but fail to pass the electoral threshold in 1999 election for just having less than 2 percent of vote. To follow the election bill, PK change their name a bit and then become PKS. In 2004 election they gain more than 7 percent of vote and face next year election with bold confidence.

Their party leader put ambitious target of 20 percent of vote in 2009. If become true, PKS will be the at the same league with PDIP and Golkar. PDIP and Golkar can only manage to get 18 and 20 percent of vote in 2004 and they put another 10 percent hike next year.

All parties has their own internal problem, including PKS. Despite the cadre unquestion loyalty to the party leader which always taken care by the preachers, grass roots cadre start questioning the pragmatical policies run by party’s elite. A joke describe two main fractions in PKS nowadays, the justice fraction and the welfare fraction. It is a mere joke, but enough to reflect what happen inside.

More political power means more access to financial sources, legal or not. Despite the holy cause, party needs money to lubricate their political engine. More domestic elections in every province and municipal that cannot be win without big campaign. It means the need of a lot of money no cadres can meet. And money interest always start trouble.

But that is the common poblem with all party. PKS still got a chance to materialized their big potential to another election success. The next question is, what will PKS do if they could raise 10 percent of vote? Of course, the bigger part in government. If Yudhoyono only give three minister position to PKS on his cabinet, in 2009 PKS will likely hunt for vice president positions.

And they have prepared Hidayat Nur Wahid, former PKS president now as chairman of People’s Consultative Assemby (MPR), for the next vice president with all cost. I mean, PKS will build alliance either with Golkar or PDIP, even with Yudhoyono’s grim future PD. It is not about holy politics, its all about power.

Hidayat Nur Wahid getting more popular since he managed to win the chairman of the People's Consultative Assembly though it only serve as a political symbol body. Will he be ready for more governmental function for political position such as vice president?

PT Pindad (Army Industrial Company) made their first debut developed 100 wheeled armoured personnel carrier for Indonesian Armed Forces. Is it time for Pindad to the next level, to build a tracked fighting vehicle or maybe a battle tank? Pindad has involved in reparation program of Scorpion tank and they made some parts of it such as track rubber shoe and link. We don’t argue the capabilities of Indonesian strategic industries to build such a thing. But what kind of tank we need to build?

Indonesian army always operate the light tank weighing not more than 20 tones due to the limitation of our road infrastructure and the nature of Indonesian wet soil. TNI still operates AMX-13 and Scorpions, while Marine Corps rely on the old Sovyet era, the amphibious PT-76. They had acquire the more modern BMP-2 from Ukraine and still waiting for the delivery of 20 BMP-3F from Russia.

We don’t need to build a large 40 tones main battle tank (MBT) just because Malaysia, our nearest neighbour, had a division of PT-90, a copy of Russian T-72, bought from Poland. Malaysia deployed their main battle tank in Johor Bahru, a large industrial district covered with large highway and pavement that can sustain the vehicle monstrous weight.

Johor Bahru face directly to Singapore, former part of Malaya that declare independence in 9 August 1965. Theo Sjafei, former Army general joined the PDIP party said, Singapore has rapid action force capable to invade the whole Johor State within a week. It is the strong point to conquer the whole Malaya. Main battle tank likes PT-90 indeed being prepared to deter threat from Singapore.

Indonesia doesn’t face those kind of threat. The only possible land invasion could be from Malaysia’s North Borneo, Sabah and Serawak States. But they must cope with the Kalimantan’s dense forest and swamp, an environment not suitable for a main battle tank. The other land border is in Papua with the worse condition of mountainous terrain and the thickest tropical jungle.

Most of Indonesian terrain does not support the concept of main battle tank. Even the light tank still can only operates on the normal road if they don’t want to be stuck in the paddy field’s mud or swamp. Indonesian Army doesn’t need full scale MBT but it needs a special lightweight tank to sustain such MBT role, engaging any enemy’s MBT threat in the jungle, swamp, paddy fields or in the middle of palm plantation around Sumatera and Kalimantan island.

Indonesian Army acquired 100 Alvis Scorpions in 1996. Aluminum body provide the weight only 8-9 tones, made it easy to be transported by C-130 Hercules. But Scorpions was not a combat tank, it just a mobile platform for the gun it bears. Here, the Sorpion mounted with 90 mm Cockeril guns.

Alvis Scorpions seems an ideal tank for Indonesian tropical landscape. But its aluminum body cannot stand against armour piercing ammo from a heavy machinegun. It better serve as support gun platform, instead for the real frontline combat.

Before Scorpions, Indonesian Army rely on French AMX-13 light tank, weighing only 15 tones. AMX-13 was a remarkable big guns platform capable to carry long barrel 90-105 mm cannon. Israeli Defense Force found the best role by deploying AMX-13 as a tank buster in 1960s Arab War. Put AMX-13 on the high ground and smash all enemy’s tank far below. Thanks to its long range guns capable to destroy any Russian main battle tank deployed by Arab countries at the time.

Despite the success story, AMX-13 still cannot play MBT role. The old AMX-13 can only play as support gun platform, the same role as Scorpion. Besides, Indonesian AMX-13 still inherit old gunnery technologies. It must stop to shot precisely. Singapore Army upgrade their AMX-13 but still they are not fit for first tier frontline battle tank.

AMX-13 gain big success in the Israeli hands. The key is exploiting the gun capability. Look at the WWII German style gun. It seems the turret was build around the gun.

There are so many type of light tank weighing between 20-25 tones that might capable to play as lightweight MBT. Cadillac Gage and Textron Marine and Land System developed Stingray light tank weighed only 20 tones. It can carry British L7 105 mm rifled guns. Stingray armour could stand against heavy machinegun rounds up to 14.5 mm calibre. It seems one of the best pltaform for Army light tank. Our neighbour Thailand acquired 100 Stingray in 1988-1990.

Stingray is the only NATO ligh tank mounting the 105 mm cannon still in production. US Army never adopted Stingray but it is available for foreign military sales. That's why as of now only Thailand ever purchased this full MBT yet lightweight tank.

Indonesia also can learn how Argentine acquire their TAM light tank. Realizing their lack capability to build their own tank, Argentine government asked Germany firm, Thyssen-Henschel, for helping them develop a light MBT suitable for Argentine terrain. Avoid to build from the scratch, Thyysen-Henschel use Marder APC hull as basic platform. They use Leopard 1 MBT style turret. And the result is 30 tones tank mounted with 105 mm cannon.

Argentine TAM develop by the help from Germany. TAM was build on the Marder APC chassis and employed leopard style turret technologies.

(word ‘panser’ used by Indonesian tongue I believe derived from Dutch or German word ‘panzer’ that means tank or armoured vehicle. In Indonesia, however, it describe the wheeled armoured vehicle. Meanwhile, tracked armoured vehicle still called tank as in english)

Long development of self made weapon have been conduct since US government imposed military embargo on TNI (Indonesian Armed Forces) in 1996. The need become so obvious when TNI launch a large scale military campaign in Aceh Province in 2003. In the attempt to suppress the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) guerillas, both sides found they fought in a Vietnam War era. Old weapons fight 60s technologies armory.

Indonesian army deployed their old ganks of armoured vehicle ranging from British Saladin and Saracen, US made V-150 and French AMX-13. But that was for the cavalry brigade. As infantry mobility only depend on the militerized version of civilian truck, they were vulnerable from guerillas light arms attack. And the poorly equipped GAM’s guerillas still confident with their old but venerable AK-47 and rarely used RPG (rocket propelled grenade).

Army then submit demand for a lightweight armoured vehicle able to carry as many as 10  fully equipped personnels and capable to stand off the pierce of light to medium calibre machinegun bullet. Thus, in early 2004 Pindad delivered 14 small armoured vehicle called Angkut Personel Ringan (APR1-V1) to Aceh to replace 28 Scorpion tanks since the British government banned its deployment in internal conflict.  Army bought 100 Scorpions in 1996 from Britain almost on a double of market price and they still couldn’t prove its price-worthiness.

Due to lack of road performance, Army cancel the order of the next 26 APR1-V1.  Developed from 2 tones Isuzu 4×4 truck chassis (TNI called Reo truck), APR1-V1 not inherit a true combat armoured vehicle race. In that time, Pindad only convert the most common and highest populated truck operated by TNI onto small armoured car to ease maintenance, save development time and money the Army couldn’t deliver. ”During the Aceh conflict, no APR ever destroyed by GAM. Army lost two APRs swept by tsunami in the end of 2004,” said Budi Santosa, CEO of Pindad.

Yes, APR1-V1 far from a bold and good looking vehicle you wanna drive on an afternoon ride. At least, Bangladesh Army has shown interest in the cheapest armoured vehicle that only cost you less than US$ 55 K. Add more US$ 500 and you'll get full air conditioner and stereo. I will prefer to rely on this ill road performer car than the expensive full capable off roader but lacked on bullet proof US AM General Hummer, if going for Iraq.

Despite the Army dissatisfaction of APR1-V1, Pindad proceed to the next level. The next development was bigger APC called Angkut Personel Sedang (APS). Pindad along with Agency For Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT) made two APS version but still build from the same truck chassis. This time, they use 5 tones 6×6 Perkasa truck made by engineering division of PT Texmaco, former biggest textile factory collapsed during 1997-1998 economic crisis. Powered by domestic made Austrian Steyr Puch diesel engine, APS looks more promising.

During a fierce combat in the middle of jungle, what else can you expect than an armoured limousine. Rear sliding door made it the most elegance APC by far. Ladies and gentlement, Pindad APS at your service to bring you home safe and sound!!

Pindad finally made their way to take APS-V1's shape right. Now they looks familiar as normal APC. No side sliding door entry from previous APS model. Pindad provide more stylist way to enter the driver cabin, just open the hatch and jump in.

Both APS model never went on combat. But realizing the capability of Pindad, on late 2005 TNI gave full support and financing the next project to build real armoured vehicle then become the Panser 0 Series. Pindad only given two months to build four prototypes that can be displayed during TNI’s 61st anniversary commemoration on October 2006.

Pindad actually build Panser 0 Series from the scratches, but with reference from Renault VAB. Budi Santosa admitted they broke a French VAB down in Pindad’s workshop at southern Bandung, West Java, to fully study its inside outside capabilities. But rather than just copying or doing some reverse engineering from VAB parts, Panser 0 Series came up with different style. Pindad developed new suspension model claimed better than VAB’s.

Unlike her predecessor, Panser 0 Series consist of monocoque high strength composite steel body. I manage to have a ride on the VAB and Panser 0 Series to feel the difference. VAB bought by Indonesian Army was 4×4 wheel version, not the more expensive 6×6 wheel version. I noticed  VAB wheel can bend slightly on its axle more flexible than Panser 0 Series’s. It is usefull on extreme uneven road. Thats’ why the riding feel of VAB more bumpy even on the smooth tarmac. Pindad’s Panser, thanx to its 6 wheels, move steady and firm. But I have no chance to test them off road.

Pindad Panser 0 Series first displayed to the public during the commemoration of TNI's 61th anniversary on 5th October 2006 in TNI HQ Cilangkap, south of capital Jakarta. President Yudhoyono only made a glance look from his presidential car as passing by Panser static display enroute to back to Palace after commanding the TNI 61th anniversary.

French Renault VAB became the backbone of TNI's Garuda Expeditionary Forces during UN peace keeping mission in Lebanon. We can notice the simmilarity and difference with Pindad's Panser 0 Series.

Pindad gave name 0 Series for its new APC to distinguish its basic role model for the next development. Pindad now receive order of 100 Panser from the government to equip Army, Marines, and Air Force commandos. They must develop not just for APC role, but also the fighting vehicle model that can be mounted with large canon, amphibious version and handle the flak (anti airstrike) guns.

TNI has long demanded an armoured wheeled vehicle that can be mounted with 90 mm cannon, such in Alvis Vickers Scorpion tank. The main problem is, could the high profile 6×6 wheeled vehicle sustain the high power of 90 mm guns? Scorpion tank has lower center of weight than armoured wheeled vehicle and less likely will be rolled over by the gun’s enormous recoil power.

An officer in Department of Defence have said to me that the vehicle required to mount 90 mm cannon will likely not provided by Pindad. He still not sure that a 6×6 wheeled vehicle has capable of doing so. TNI, he said, prefer the 8×8 wheeled vehicle for such role. But he suggested a solution; Pindad should make a bigger 8×8  wheeled version of Panser 0 Series.

Budi Santosa insisted that a 6×6 wheeled can be mounted with 90 mm cannon. ”It only need some modification on the body. Indeed we should cut the height of the Panser,” Budi said. The lower the profile, the lower the center of weight to increase its balance.

Nowadays, the role of mounting large cannon played by 8×8 wheeled vehicle. With more tyres you can have more weight to increase load and ammunition capability. Rooikat from South Africa and US made Piranha, late became Stryker heavily deployed in Iraq, were good samples. There is a trend that some countries prefer to wheeled than tracked armoured vehicle. Belgian army planned to replace their old and costly Leopard-1 main battle tank with 8×8 wheeled Piranha mount the same fire power of 105 mm cannon.

Battle proven South African's Rooikat 8x8 wheeled armoured fighting vehicle bears 105 mm guns. Bigger guns need bigger vehicle.

But old days 6×6 and even 4×4 armoured infantry vehicle (AIV) can sustain that kind of job. Such as 4×4 British Simba, 4×4 Cadillac Gage V-150 and 6×6 V-300. Even the old 6×6 Tpz Fuch APC can be easily mounted with Cockeril 90 mm guns without major body modifications, let alone the height reduction. With major drawback, due to non existence of fire control stabilizer and less weight, they cannot fire while moving.

Old Tpz Fuchs was an ordinary German made armoured personnel carrier. Cockeril made their way to place the 90 mm guns on top of this high profile vehicle.

Another foreign made weapon, either from west or east, can only pleased the high ranking officer. Pindad should be given a chance to prove what they capable of. Of course they can cooperate with foreign arms firm such Belgian Cockeril, manfactured 90 mm guns for Scorpion, to learn how to make the big gun suit in Panser 0 Series chassis and vice versa. Domestic capabilities will not emerge unless foreign dependencies cut off. Should the foreign government impose another military embargo, there’ll be no need of worries because army once again can rely on their skunk work.  <END>